Social media erupted on Sunday when a poll showed musician Robert Ritchie, aka Kid Rock, up by four points over incumbent Democratic Michigan Senator Debbie Stabenow. Delphi Analytics, whose website just launched this month, released the findings:
Of respondents who stated a preference between Debbie Stabenow and Robert Ritchie, 54% stated they would vote for Ritchie while 46% said they would vote for Debbie Stabenow. These results could indicate that Ritchie is a popular figure in Michigan, Debbie Stabenow is unpopular, or some combination of concurrent trends. The relatively large, 44%, number of undecided respondents may be due to the early stages of the campaign.
The race to 2016 has barely even begun, yet Democratic Senate hopefuls across the country are already imploding.
According to the Washington Times, Pennsylvania Senator Pat Toomey is holding down the fort with a strong lead over his his challenger, Joe Sestak:
Mr. Toomey leads former Democratic Rep. Joe Sestak, 48 percent to 35 percent,according to the Quinnipiac poll released Monday. A solid plurality of voters — 49 percent to 24 percent — approve of Mr. Toomey’s job performance, while about six in 10 didn’t know enough about Mr. Sestak to form an opinion.
In one representative example, Sam Inglot of far-left group Progress Michigan created a“Terri Lynn Land drinking game” that calls on participants listening to the program to “Drink when she says ‘I’m a mom’ or ‘The President needs to lead.’”
“How many times are you going to mention that you’re a mom?” Hugh Madden, another Progress Michigan activist, added in a tweet.
During her answers to two questions in an hour long interview on Michigan Public Radio where she took questions from callers statewide, Land noted how “I’m a mom” and how she has two kids. The first time she did it was in the context of how she was worried about “the safety and security of our country.”
While the current Rothenberg Political Report ratings don’t show it, I am now expecting a substantial Republican Senate wave in November, with a net gain of at least seven seats.
But I wouldn’t be shocked by a larger gain.
Rothenberg Political Report ratings reflect both where a race stands and, more importantly, where it is likely headed on Election Day. Since early polls rarely reflect the eventual November environment, either in terms of the candidates’ name recognition and resources or of the election’s dynamic, there is often a gap between how I categorize each race (my ratings) and what I privately assume will happen in November.
The Detroit News and Detroit Free Press both ran articles over the weekend detailing Gary Peters’ hypocrisy for investing in petcoke at the same time he is publicly attacking petcoke as a dangerous pollutant. This is consistent with Gary Peters’ hypocrisy on immigration, Wall Street, equal pay for women, and numerous other issues. But the fact that the two largest papers in the state prominently covered his hypocrisy is an important moment in this campaign.
Detroit Free Press: “Considering the emphasis Peters has put on the piles that once abutted the Detroit River, raising questions about his shares of Total S.A. is inbounds.”
With every passing day and with every new poll we gain greater clarity about what could happen in the crucial November elections. All the recent news has been positive for Republicans. Actually, it may be fairer to say that it’s been negative for Democrats. But regardless of which side of that argument you take the bottom line remains the same: The GOP has a tremendous opportunity to make substantial gains if they’re supporters have the will to see it through.
Take a look at some of the more recent data points: